The Ammo Feeding Frenzy Has Finally Died Down

We haven't seen ammo prices hit this level since 2019... Time to invest in some BRASS and LEAD!

The Ammo Feeding Frenzy Has Finally Died Down

We haven't seen ammo prices hit this level since 2019... Time to invest in some BRASS and LEAD!

Covid was a wild time.

For a lot of reasons, but particularly for the firearms industry. In the past, those of us in the industry could generally predict when the next buying frenzy would occur. Up until March of 2020 it had always occurred around the election cycle.

Democrat gets into office = guns and ammo go crazy. The more outspoken the democrat was about restricting guns, the more guns and ammo would fly off the shelf.

This was the cycle in 2008-9 when Obama took office and again in 2012-13 when he got re-elected.

There was a brief run up in ammo, mags and guns in 2015 when everyone thought that Killary would be elected. Particularly because she was vocal about restricting “high capacity magazines” and “assault rifles”. It fizzled out when Trump took office and stayed that way until 2020.

What we had in 2020 was unlike anything we’d seen before because of the swiftness and depth of the shortage. It came on so suddenly. We were expecting an election spike but nothing like we saw back then.

Here is a proxy for the activity in the gun industry: NICS background check data:

(Source: ZeroHedge)

In that NICS chart you can clearly see the two Obama spikes and the Killary spike then of course the Covid tsunami.

As you’ll probably remember we faced the dual pressures of lockdowns closing manufacturing, shortages of raw materials, AND millions of new gun owners - as the NICS data clearly shows (well it shows purchases, but a large number of people that go through the NICS system are first time gun owners).

The number of people that became brand new gun owners during Covid are estimated between 5 million to 8 million. Liberal sources cite a higher number like it is a bad thing of course, while industry sources, like NSSF, are more conservative and err on the low side.

Either way, what we have now is millions of new gun owners! That's a great thing.

People that now understand that a firearm is the best form of personal protection in the modern world - bar none.

Billions of Rounds

One thing that people didn’t realize was during the pandemic / ammo shortage, if 8 million people bought a gun for the first time and wanted just 100 rounds of ammunition, that is 800 MILLION rounds that needed to be produced and sold.

Heck and 100 rounds ain’t a lot of ammo folks!

Manufacturers needed to produce BILLIONS of rounds to meet demand, but they couldn't. They had to deal with B.S. covid restrictions on disinfection and "social distancing", deal with shortages in raw material and primers. It was an uphill battle for over two years!

So here we are, finally with some breathing room.

The ammo and gun frenzy has finally died down - for now. Prices have come down and availability is up. Even hard to find and obscure calibers are back in stock around the country.

This is a window of opportunity for anyone that owns a gun to stock up now while availability and prices are good.

A Good Course of Action

Ammunition can also be an inflation hedge and alternative to gold. Even if you don't subscribe to that line of thinking, realize that the price of ammo isn't likely to get much lower so it makes a great investment right now whether you plan to shoot it or just hold it for a while.

Here is a strategy I would suggest to everyone:

  1. Search for deals online - there are a bunch right now. Get your in-house supply situation in order. Stock up now while prices are low.
  2. Set up a recurring AutoBuy at for something modest that fits your budget like $50-100/mo. Treat it like a savings account. This becomes your backup supply. You can set it and forget it so it is there when you need it.
  3. Go out and shoot! Practice and train on a regular basis. Take courses. I like to think of “Arm Day, Leg Day, Range Day” to keep my focus on working out and training with my firearms. (I stole that from some manufacturer.. Springfield?) But it works.
  4. Sleep soundly because you are working out, well trained, have an ammo stash at home, and a backup supply on demand when you need it.

Then when, not if, the next ammo shortage happens you will have peace of mind because you are prepared and able to wait it out without adding to the ammo feeding frenzy.